Immigration: the dog that didn't bark?

Immigration was the emerging issue throughout 2023 and much of 2024, yet it was perceived to be "the dog that didn't bark" in the general election. Candidates during the election reported that they didn't hear the issue come up on the doors. While this is partly a function of what people will say in a face-to-face environment (known as social desireability bias), it is certainly true that the issue dropped off quite significantly in the run up to the election. It is therefore worth exploring how and why this might have dropped off as an issue.

Figure 1 shows how the the public perceived the issue from January 2022 to January 2025. While the issue ratcheted upwards throughout 2022 and 2023, often in response to various events it declined substantially in October and November 2024. By January 2025 the issue has fallen further in the list of priorities, back to the level it was at before the riots in Dublin.

It remains a prominent issue, a top 4 issue, but it is no longer as prominent as it was previously.

There are many possible explanations for this drop but it is worth acknowledging that that the fall coincides with developments in the asylum system. Figure 2 shows the number of people using international protection accommodation services (IPAS). Again it is clear is that between 2022 and 2024 there was a substantial rise in the number of people availing of these services. In practical terms the sharp rise requires the opening of new accommodations facilities, a focal point for protests and politicisation of the issue.