The Evidence

The economy and the vote

Polling day leadership ratings

Bayesian multilevel regression with post-stratification

Who is considering whom?

The chart below shows how current voters of different stripes are considering other parties. It reveals a number of different voter groups. The FF-FG block, the soft left, the harder left (SF & PBP) and the right (Independents & Aontú). FF & FG voters are considering voting within this block

A rural backlash against the green party?

Inspired by the ever-insightful Colin Murphy I wanted to understand how the decline in support for the Green Party was influenced by a 'rural backlash'. So, I had a look at the change in Green Party vote 2019-2024, (focusing on areas where they ran in both elections) and

Polling accuracy in the 2024 European elections

I'd normally refrain from this sort of 'accuracy' analysis because in reality polls and outcomes can diverge for a whole host of reasons outside of the control of the polling firm. And such analysis doesn't necessarily improve the quality of public opinion polling rather

2024 Election polling day poll

Use: Free to use with attribution of 'Ireland Thinks'. Or sign up for any updates if you'd like to. Poll details: Final sample size from the below was 2882 (95% confidence interval 1.86%). Uninvited/duplicated participants deleted. Poll was weighted to ensure it is a

EU Election undecideds update

There is no doubt that a large section of population remains undecided even at this late stage. The table below illustrates the percentage of survey respondents who indicated that they were "Not sure" in response to the standard voting intention question for these European elections. You will also

Hockeystick surges, late deciders and European Election undecideds

Hockeystick surges Increasingly elections are determined by late surges. We only need to look at (1) the recent referendums, which showed the Yes vote unravelling in a matter of days, and (2) the 2020 general election when support for Sinn Féin rose dramatically when the general campaign proper began one

The popular choice for the next Manager of Ireland

Our latest poll with OffTheBall explores the popularity of a number of options for the job of manager of the Republic of Ireland. Roy Keane was the most popular with 39% opting for Keane, followed by Chris Hughton on 20% and Lee Carsley also on 20%. The bookies favourite for

Hate Crime Legislation

One question was asked in relation to this particular piece of legislation. The question focused online on the online aspect of the legislation. To understand it in greater detail, in particular with respect to the addition of new protected categories, further research would be required [https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/

The Russian Invasion of Ukraine

Here follows the details on the Sunday Independent/Ireland Thinks poll on the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Firstly, there is a majority in favour of a European Defence Agreement. This is consistent with previous data from the Eurobarometer series. It is highest among older people, supporters of Fianna Fáil and

Voting intentions

Mandatory vaccinations: Difficulties for Sinn Féin?

Rising electoral volatility casts doubt on the certainty of the next general election

Something is happening in politics that feels quite important. The latest example of this feature was last month when the Social Democratic Party [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Social_Democratic_Party_of_Germany] surged [https://www.rte.ie/news/world/2021/0926/1249043-germany-elections/] at the very end of a four-year

How the public feel about the latest restrictions

On Friday the government announced a series of restrictions aimed once again to curb the rise in the number of cases of Covid-19 in Ireland. In response to this announcement Ireland Thinks conducted an opinion poll that evening to test whether the public agreed with these new measures or otherwise.

10 new things about the pandemic from our November 2020 Poll

A number of points are worth making about the latest results in respect of the pandemic. 1. The electorate is significantly more confident in the government’s handling of the pandemic than it has been previously. Confidence in the government's ability to tackle the pandemic has increased to

Majority in support of 8th amendment

The latest poll by Ireland Thinks for the Irish Daily Mail indicates that there is a majority in favour of a change to the constitution on abortion. Respondents were asked "If a referendum were held to repeal the 8th amendment that is to make abortion unrestricted during the first